Flight 19 for NASA’s Ingenuity is scheduled to happen no sooner than Sunday, Jan. 23
The environment of Mars is way much less dense than Earth’s; nonetheless, the Mars local weather shares many similarities to Earth: seasons, altering winds, ice clouds, and mud storms, amongst others. Predicting climate occasions, as is true for Earth, is all the time an unsure endeavor. In making ready for Flight 19, we discovered that sudden Mars climate can lead to a well-recognized and unlucky situation right here on Earth: a delayed flight. Luckily, Ingenuity carries no passengers, and all its baggage is “carry-on,” so the consequence is little greater than ready for higher climate.
With 18 flights accomplished thus far, climate forecasting has grow to be an integral piece of Martian flight planning. For the reason that first flight on April 19, 2021, Jezero Crater has progressed via spring and into summer time. We’re at the moment approaching the top of summer time and the start of autumn, which begins Feb. 24. With the altering seasons come new challenges, together with a lower in air density that required modifications to how we fly.
As climate forecasters, our job is to offer an analysis of present climate situations in opposition to flight necessities. What are these necessities for acceptable and protected flying? Favorable situations hinge on two key properties: air density and wind velocity. Though we would not have the benefit of a lot of climate stations or orbiting climate satellites at Mars, as is the case on Earth, we do have a variety of instruments at our disposal to find out if situations are acceptable for flight. Probably the most helpful forecasting useful resource is the Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer (MEDA) – an working climate station aboard the Perseverance rover. Utilizing this highly effective suite of devices, we are able to calculate the air density and measure winds all through the day and monitor their adjustments with season as we put together for future flights. We’re not with out help from orbital property, both – each the Mars Colour Imager (MARCI) and Mars Local weather Sounder (MCS) aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) present day by day updates on the state of the environment – helpful for understanding exercise outdoors of Jezero crater that would affect future climate.
As Mars transitions into autumn, we count on a rise within the quantity of mud within the environment globally; ranges will stay heightened via winter (this era of the yr is known as the “dusty season”). Mud performs a serious position in Mars’ local weather, and its characterization is very vital for solar-powered floor property like Ingenuity. Atmospheric mud will lower the quantity of daylight that reaches Ingenuity’s photo voltaic panels, which cost the batteries wanted for flight. Moreover, mud within the environment is heated by daylight and warms the encompassing environment, leading to a discount of the already-low-density air through which Ingenuity should fly. Members of the operations group have been actively discussing the upcoming dusty season and the way to answer the results of this altering atmosphere.
A robust regional mud storm appeared on the primary day of the brand new yr, encompassing Jezero crater simply as we scheduled Flight 19. The presence of this storm got here fairly early – even earlier than the dusty season historically begins! In reality, we’ve by no means seen a storm of this power so early within the Mars yr earlier than. The primary indicators of the approaching mud storm have been noticed by Perseverance, which noticed elevated mud lifting inside Jezero crater. In orbit, MRO captured photos of this rising regional mud storm, which confirmed indicators of growth from the southern hemisphere into the northern hemisphere – doubtlessly in direction of Jezero crater. Our climate forecast group needed to decide to go ahead with the flight or not. The information we analyze from MEDA and orbital property can have a lag of some hours to some days, and so we needed to make a forecast for Flight 19 a couple of days into the longer term. It was clear that there was appreciable uncertainty on the horizon. The climate group advisable delaying Flight 19, which was finally adopted by the Ingenuity group (Flight 19 initially scheduled for Jan. 5, 2022, or Perseverance mission sol 313).
The grounding of Ingenuity proved to be the appropriate resolution. Within the days following the flight delay, the mud storm moved over Jezero crater, and we have been in a position to clearly see its results in each MEDA knowledge and from orbit (Determine 1). Most notable was a pointy drop in air density – a couple of 7% deviation under what was noticed pre-dust storm. This noticed lower would have put density under the decrease threshold of protected flight and would have imparted undue threat to the spacecraft. We additionally noticed the impact of mud within the quantity of daylight absorbed by Ingenuity’s photo voltaic array, which fell properly under regular “clear sky” ranges, a drop of about 18%.
The mud storm has dissipated, and proper now, it’s wanting like we’ll fly Ingenuity no sooner than this Sunday, Jan. 23. The mud storm and its affect on planning is a crucial studying expertise for your complete group. Future occasions later within the dusty season are anticipated and have the potential to develop into global-scale storms like these noticed most not too long ago in 2018, 2007, and 2001. We’ll stay diligent in our efforts to soundly fly Ingenuity for the foreseeable future.